The Conservative Papers

March 9, 2010

Riot’s in Greece Coming Soon to a State Near You!

Filed under: Financial, Freedoms — Tags: , , , , — alpineski @ 10:14 am


Greece this past weekend saw the worst rioting since the debt crisis began. After Athens had announced new tax hikes and budget cuts to reduce a deficit of 13 percent of gross domestic product, mobs drove guards from Greece’s Tomb of the Unknown Soldier and attacked police.

In our own country, students, teachers and administrators at UC-Berkeley held a “Strike and Day of Action to Defend Education” to demand more money from taxpayers — for themselves.

How badly are they suffering?

According to Peter Robinson of Hoover Institution, California spends $13,000 per student in the state system, compared to $6,000 in New York.

Yet riots in Greece and demonstrators in California do portend a time of troubles. For the budget cuts and tax hikes needed to keep the welfare states of Europe operating as populations age and fewer children are born will be staggering and endless.

And, in the U.S., California is where we all are headed.

Nevada, Arizona and New Jersey are staring at budget gaps of 25 percent. New York and Illinois are not far behind. Michigan has an unemployment rate of 14 percent. Detroit is the quintessential sick city.

Republicans may get by this fall surfing an anti-government wave. But they will soon have to reveal where exactly they propose to cut.

Fortunately, good politics and good policy give the same answer. USA Today’s lead story on Friday — “It Pays to Work for Uncle Sam” — contrasted the wages and benefits of federal workers with those of employees in the private sector.

Using federal figures from 2008, reporter Dennis Cauchon found:

U.S. government workers earned an average salary of $67,691 for occupations that exist in both government and the private sector, which was $7,600 a year more than workers in the private sector doing the same jobs. Health and pension benefits for U.S. government workers average $40,795 per year, but $9,882 per worker in the private sector.

Nurses employed by Veterans Affairs hospitals earn an average of $74,460 a year, which is $10,689 more than private-sector nurses.

Chris Edwards of Cato Institute has compared the pay and benefits of local and state government employees with private-sector workers.

He found the average hourly compensation, wages and benefits of state and local government employees in 2009 was $39.66 per hour, 45 percent higher than the $27.42 per hour package of private-sector workers

Where 80 percent to 90 percent of state and local government employees get paid sick leave, health insurance and life insurance, and 90 percent receive pensions, that is true of only 59 percent to 71 percent of workers in the private sector.

These disparities suggest that government work is becoming a sweet deal for those who can get it, which may explain why government has begun to crush the private sector that has to carry the government on its back.

Consider. Between 2000 and 2010, U.S. manufacturing, backbone of the nation, lost 5.7 million jobs, one-third of all the manufacturing jobs America had. But government employment rose that same decade by 1.9 million jobs to 22 million, with three-fourths of the new workers being added to local government payrolls.

States like California, whose public employees are among the best paid in the nation, are the states closest to chapter 11. Their last, best hope to close their deficits is a U.S. taxpayer rescue a la Fannie, Freddy, GM and AIG. But do the states merit a taxpayer bailout if their crises come out of their own continuing profligate ways?

Writes Edwards:

“Public sector workers … can typically retire at age 55 after 30 years of service, as in California’s CalPERS system. In CalPERS, workers receive an annual pension equal to 60 percent of final salary after 30 years. Public safety workers in CalPERS can retire at age 50 after 30 years of work with benefits equal to 90 percent of their final salary.

“In California, there are 6,144 retired public employees in the CalPERS plan and 3,090 retired teachers in the state teachers’ plan receiving annual pension benefits of more than $100,000.”

And folks wonder why California is bankrupt. Should middle-class Americans be forced to subsidize $100,000-a-year pensions for middle-aged California retirees?

Yet, Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, in that $787 billion stimulus bill, shoveled billions of federal tax dollars into California to pay salaries, pensions and health benefits of Californians who have been paid more than private-sector workers all of their lives. Where is the fairness here?

Not another federal dime should go out to any state government whose employees receive more in pay and pensions than the average worker in that state or the other 49.

As for the U.S. government, Republicans should call for a one-year freeze on federal salaries and a two-year freeze on congressional salaries. If sacrifices are to be made, the people who had a fat decade at taxpayers’ expense should make them sacrifice, not a ravaged private sector that has contributed almost all of the conscripts to today’s 15-million-man army of the unemployed.

February 6, 2010

Sovereign Risk Meets Sovereign Reality

Filed under: Financial — Tags: , , — alpineski @ 11:48 am

Santorini, Greece


The Wall Street Journal- After months of shrugging off debt problems in Dubai, Greece and other smaller economies, markets yesterday seemed suddenly aware of the risks of sovereign default.

Back in November, when the question of Dubai’s solvency came to a head, it was ultimately bailed out by its rich older brother, Abu Dhabi. Now, the European Union is doing its best to avoid promising a similar bailout to Greece, though in the end few believe Brussels will allow Athens to go under.

The current crisis in Greece is only the worst example inside the EU. The PIGS—Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain—all boast public debt above or headed for 100% of GDP. Though the PIGS acronym was apparently coined by British bankers, Britain, Ireland and Iceland also smell distinctly of bacon.

The problem isn’t confined to Europe. Japan and the United States, by most reckonings the world’s largest economies, also face pressing questions about their sovereign debt levels. To be sure, the U.S. and Japan can sustain such deficits more comfortably than small countries like Greece or Portugal where the government’s ability to curb public-sector spending is rightly suspect. Yet even in economic giants, bad policy could cause investors to move out of debt they have long considered a safe haven. The moment is approaching when the artificial line separating the wealthy from emerging markets will lose much of its relevance.

Countries like Germany, whose fiscal balances have deteriorated largely due to the economic downturn, might have a greater capacity to stabilize their debt ratio. The U.S. and Japan will also be among the last countries to face investor aversion. This is because the dollar is the global reserve currency, and the U.S. has the deepest and most liquid debt markets. Japan is a net creditor and largely finances its debt domestically. But over the next few years, investors will become increasingly cautious about even the U.S. and Japan if the necessary fiscal reforms are delayed.

Investor perceptions about how Brussels handles the current crisis will be a key factor going forward. European countries such as Spain and Greece have delayed reforms and face a severe competitiveness problem. Japan’s aging population and economic stagnation is reducing domestic savings. The U.S. is a net debtor with an aging population and slower growth.

For the U.S., the implications are clear. The annual fiscal deficit in the U.S. will remain close to $1 trillion over the next decade. Ultimately, concerns among foreign investors about a weak dollar will force Washington to put its house in order. The U.S. will have to raise taxes on most income groups and investors, close tax exemptions and loopholes, and reduce entitlement benefits.

Foreign creditors won’t suddenly move away from U.S. Treasurys—the trend will play out gradually. The same holds true for domestic investors who consider U.S. Treasurys a safe haven and remain confident about the country’s debt-servicing ability relative to other developed economies.

But as the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates to head off inflation—something likely to begin only in 2011—foreign investors and central banks will be willing to finance the U.S. only at higher yields. Rising interest costs will be one of the factors constraining U.S. policy. That’s where sovereign risk meets sovereign reality.

Mr. Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, is author of the forthcoming book “The End of the Free Market: Who Wins the War Between States and Corporations?” (Portfolio). Mr. Roubini is a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business and chairman of Roubini Global Economics.

December 13, 2009

Democrats plan nearly $2 trillion debt limit hike

Filed under: Barack Obama, Financial — Tags: , , — alpineski @ 6:16 pm

Democrats plan to allow the government’s debt to swell by nearly $2 trillion as part of a bill next week to pay for wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The amount pretty much equals the total of a year-end spending spree by lawmakers and is big enough to ensure that Congress doesn’t have to vote again on going further into debt until after the 2010 elections.
obama_burn
The move has anxious moderate Democrats maneuvering to win new deficit-cutting tools as the price for their votes, igniting battles between the House and the Senate and with powerful interest groups on both the right and the left.

The record increase in the so-called debt limit – the legal cap on the amount of money the government can borrow – is likely to be in the neighborhood of $1.8 trillion to $1.9 trillion, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said Friday.

That eye-popping figure is making Democrats woozy but is what is needed to make sure they don’t have to vote again before next year’s midterm elections. The government’s total debt has nearly doubled in the past seven years and is expected to exceed the current ceiling of $12.1 trillion before Jan. 1.

Democratic leaders say they will try to raise the ceiling to nearly $14 trillion as part of a $626 billion bill next week to pay for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and other military programs in 2010. The bill doesn’t include the additional $30 billion President Obama is expected to seek early next year to pay for his 30,000-troop buildup in Afghanistan but it might carry an added $50 billion to pay for a six-month extension of unemployment benefits and health care insurance subsidies for the long-term jobless.

The entire strategy, however, is teetering because of brinksmanship involving moderate Senate Democrats who are demanding a bipartisan deficit reduction task force with special powers to recommend spending cuts or tax increases that would be guaranteed House and Senate votes. That idea is a total no-go with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

Playing tit for tat, moderate House “Blue Dog” Democrats announced Friday that their votes for any debt limit increase depend on winning a “pay-as-you-go” budget law aimed at ensuring that new tax cuts or new spending programs don’t increase deficits.

Under a pay-as-you-go regime, if offsetting cuts or revenue hikes are not found to pay for new policies, across-the-board spending cuts would hit selected programs such as farm subsidies and Medicare.

Minority Republicans, meanwhile, are refusing to provide any support for raising the debt ceiling.

“Instead of reducing the size of government and controlling spending, Democrats are planning to raise the debt limit by $1.8 trillion, putting American taxpayers in even deeper debt to countries like China,” said Rep. Todd Tiahrt, R-Kan.

Vice President Joe Biden, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., Blue Dog leaders and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, D-N.D., were involved in several sets of negotiations Friday in an effort to break the impasse between House and Senate Democrats.

If a deal can’t be found, Democrats might have to move on to Plan B, which would be to have the Senate pass a smaller, $925 billion increase that’s already available to them. That bill passed the House because of a quirky rule that automatically passes debt limit legislation – without an up-or-down vote – when Congress ratifies its annual budget blueprint. That was done last April.

Under the second scenario, the House would adjourn, leaving the Senate no choice but to pass the $925 billion increase in order to avoid a first-ever default on U.S. government obligations.

“We’re going to have to face the moment of truth at some point,” said Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., who is one of about a dozen Senate Democrats pressing for the special deficit task force as the price for voting for an increase in the debt limit.

The debt limit conundrum comes as Congress is wrapping up its annual appropriations bills, including a $1.1 trillion omnibus measure pending in the Senate. A vote to cut off a GOP filibuster of that measure is scheduled for Saturday morning with a final vote likely on Sunday.

The omnibus appropriations bill is opposed by most Republicans. It awards domestic programs and foreign aid considerable funding boosts and also provides money for more than 5,000 home-state pet projects pushed by lawmakers.

The omnibus bill comes on top of an infusion of cash to domestic agencies in February’s economic stimulus bill and a $410 billion measure in March that also bestowed budget increases well above inflation.

The measure survived a test vote Friday that demonstrated it should receive on Saturday the 60 votes needed to overcome the GOP stalling tactics. Three senior Republican members of the Appropriations Committee joined forces with all but three Democrats to keep the measure from effectively being killed.

September 29, 2009

Dollar is the New Peso

Filed under: Financial — Tags: , , , , — alpineski @ 12:41 pm

The U.S. dollar will continue weakening, and investors may borrow it to invest in higher-yielding assets, says Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital.

“I don’t know when (the dollar) is going to strengthen,” Schiff told CNBC.

“The dollar isn’t the new yen, it’s unfortunately the new peso.”

A weak dollar and low U.S. interest rates push the greenback toward becoming a carry trade currency, which, like the yen for many years, attracts investors to borrow it cheaply to invest elsewhere.

However, Schiff says, the dollar will weaken even further as the yen becomes a stronger currency, which makes the U.S. dollar resemble a more volatile currency such as the peso.

“Not only can you borrow dollars for very cheap and earn to carry by investing in higher yielding assets, but the dollar is going to fall sharply. So anyone who puts on the carry trade is going to make a ton of money.”

Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii has repeatedly said his government will not interfere in currency markets and is happy with the strength of the yen, which is helping keep the dollar weak.

“Fujii said they won’t intervene,” says Sebastien Galy, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas Securities in New York, according to Bloomberg.

“That gave people license to sell the dollar-yen. The dollar is under pressure in general.”

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