10 US Housing Markets At Risk Of A Major Collapse

Even the baseline scenario in places like Las Vegas and Miami is grim, where Case Shiller projects a 21% decline in home prices from 2010 to 2012.

But in one scenario it could be worse.

6.7 million delinquent mortgages are waiting to flood the market around the country — and with near-zero cure rates most of them will. Another 2 million homes in foreclosure are being held off the market by banks.

Economist Keith Jurow says distressed asset investors are ignoring this threat: “If you are an investor thinking of buying one or more properties in Miami-Dade County, for example, you need to know that 24.9% of all active first liens there were seriously distressed. This means that more than 91,000 properties are almost certainly going to be dumped onto the market. Will that exert downward pressure on prices? Absolutely.”

Distressed mortgages represented over ten percent of all mortgages in ten large markets, as of Q3 2010.

#10 Maricopa, Ariz. (Phoenix)
Active loans: 715,944
90+ days delinquent loans: 43,164
Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 31,807
Distressed total: 10.5%
Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#9 Kern, Calif. (Bakersfield)
Active loans: 114,227
90+ days delinquent loans: 8,031
Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 4,929
Distressed total: 11.3%
Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#8 San Joaquin, Calif. (Stockton)
Active loans: 105,519
90+ days delinquent loans: 8,887
Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 5,021
Distressed total: 13.2%
Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#7 San Bernadino, Calif
Active loans: 315,992
90+ days delinquent loans: 27,051
Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 14,980
Distressed total: 13.3%
Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

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#6 Prince George’s, M.D.
Active loans: 148,228
90+ days delinquent loans: 13,800
Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 6,367
Distressed total: 13.6%
Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#5 Riverside, Calif.
Active loans: 368,432
90+ days delinquent loans: 32,622
Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 17,965
Distressed total: 13.7%
Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#4 Clark, Nev. (Las Vegas)
Active loans: 360,192
90+ days delinquent loans: 32,932
Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 32,388
Distressed total: 18.1%
Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#3 Orange, Fla. (Orlando)
Active loans: 204,944
90+ days delinquent loans: 13,020
Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 24,839
Distressed total: 18.5%
Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#2 Broward, Fla. (Ft. Lauderdale)
Active loans: 328,721
90+ days delinquent loans: 21,939
Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 44,251
Distressed total: 20.1%
Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

#1 Miami-Dade, Fla.
Active loans: 366,775
90+ days delinquent loans: 26,735
Foreclosed homes kept off the market: 64,708
Distressed total: 24.9%
Source: CoreLogic via Minyanville

Delinquent mortgages are one threat

Loans staying in foreclosure are another

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