How 5 Countries Could Become 14
Analysis by ROBIN WRIGHT
Slowly, the map of the Middle East could be redrawn.
SYRIA: THE TRIGGER?
Sectarian and ethnic rivalries could break it into at least three pieces
1. Alawites, a minority that has controlled Syria for decades, dominate a coastal corridor.
2. A Syrian Kurdistan could break off and eventually merge with the Kurds of Iraq.
3. The Sunni heartland secedes and then may combine with provinces in Iraq to form Sunnistan.
SPILLOVER TO IRAQ
In the simplest of several possibilities,
northern Kurds join Syrian Kurds. Many
central areas, dominated by Sunnis, join
Syria’s Sunnis. And the south becomes
Shiitestan. It’s not likely to be so clean.
PRE-MONARCHY
SAUDI ARABIA
Long term, Saudi
Arabia faces its
own (suppressed)
internal divisions that
could surface as power
shifts to the next
generation of princes.
The kingdom’s unity is
further threatened by
tribal differences, the
Sunni-Shiite divide and
economic challenges. It
could break into the five
regions that preceeded
the modern state.
SPILLOVER TO IRAQ
In the simplest of several possibilities,
northern Kurds join Syrian Kurds. Many
central areas, dominated by Sunnis, join
Syria’s Sunnis. And the south becomes
Shiitestan. It’s not likely to be so clean.
In a more powerful twist, all or part of South Yemen could
then become part of Saudi Arabia. Nearly all Saudi commerce
is via sea, and direct access to the Arabian Sea would
diminish dependence on the Persian Gulf — and fears of
Iran’s ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz.
YEMEN SPLITS
The poorest Arab country
could break (again) into two
pieces following a potential
referendum in South
Yemen on independence.
LIBYA UNGLUED
As a result of powerful
tribal and regional rivalries,
Libya could break into its two
historic parts — Tripolitania
and Cyrenaica — and
possibly a third Fezzan state
in the southwest.
