How the Middle East Map could be Redrawn

How 5 Countries Could Become 14

Analysis by ROBIN WRIGHT

Slowly, the map of the Middle East could be redrawn.

SYRIA: THE TRIGGER?

Sectarian and ethnic rivalries could break it into at least three pieces

1. Alawites, a minority that has controlled Syria for decades, dominate a coastal corridor.

2. A Syrian Kurdistan could break off and eventually merge with the Kurds of Iraq.

3. The Sunni heartland secedes and then may combine with provinces in Iraq to form Sunnistan.

 

SPILLOVER TO IRAQ

In the simplest of several possibilities,

northern Kurds join Syrian Kurds. Many

central areas, dominated by Sunnis, join

Syria’s Sunnis. And the south becomes

Shiitestan. It’s not likely to be so clean.

 

 

PRE-MONARCHY

SAUDI ARABIA

Long term, Saudi

Arabia faces its

own (suppressed)

internal divisions that

could surface as power

shifts to the next

generation of princes.

The kingdom’s unity is

further threatened by

tribal differences, the

Sunni-Shiite divide and

economic challenges. It

could break into the five

regions that preceeded

the modern state.

SPILLOVER TO IRAQ

In the simplest of several possibilities,

northern Kurds join Syrian Kurds. Many

central areas, dominated by Sunnis, join

Syria’s Sunnis. And the south becomes

Shiitestan. It’s not likely to be so clean.

In a more powerful twist, all or part of South Yemen could

then become part of Saudi Arabia. Nearly all Saudi commerce

is via sea, and direct access to the Arabian Sea would

diminish dependence on the Persian Gulf — and fears of

Iran’s ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz.

 

YEMEN SPLITS

The poorest Arab country

could break (again) into two

pieces following a potential

referendum in South

Yemen on independence.

LIBYA UNGLUED

As a result of powerful

tribal and regional rivalries,

Libya could break into its two

historic parts — Tripolitania

and Cyrenaica — and

possibly a third Fezzan state

in the southwest.

0929-syria

 

VN:F [1.9.22_1171]
Rating: 0.0/10 (0 votes cast)
Posted in Freedoms, Israel, Terrorism.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Optionally add an image (JPEG only)

 

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.