Main stream media skews polls to discourage potential voters from voting and has done it for years.
A good example of the media trying to shape a vote was in 1980. In a Gallup poll released on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan 47 – 39. Two weeks later Reagan won in such a landslide that Carter conceded before California was closed.
Another example of mainstream liberal media bias was in 1988. A Gallup Poll from July 26 showed Michael S. Dukakis leading George H. W. Bush by 17 points. Of course Bush went on to thump Dukakis in the general election.
This past week a number of polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by various margins. One poll last week reported by NBC/WSJ showed Hillary ahead by 11. However, Truthfeed pointed out that NBC/WSJ didn’t mention that the poll was created by a Hillary Super PAC.
It’s also well known that the Monmouth University poll is run by a Hillary Huckster who recently was caught manipulating a poll and then lied about it.
Realclearpolitics.com takes an average of these distorted polls to come up with their analysis of the current race. Their efforts are a great example of the phrase – ‘garbage in – garbage out’.
Expert Analysis
With all the liberal distortions and dishonesty we decided to have a small team of actuarial and statistics professionals take a look at a couple of the recent polls to get their take on the reliability of these polls. They selected the recent FOX poll from October 14 showing Hillary up by 7 and the WSJ/NBC poll from October 16 showing Hillary with an 11 point lead.
In 1936, a magazine called The Literary Digest ran one of the biggest opinion polls of all time. It asked 2.4 million people whether they planned to vote for the incumbent Democratic president, Franklin D. Roosevelt, or his Republican challenger, Alfred Landon.
It trumpeted this prediction:
- Landon: 57%
- Roosevelt: 43%
The poll must have had one of the smallest margins of error in polling. But it was dead wrong.
Error margins apply only to the population a pollster is sampling.
This is what actually happened in the election:
- Roosevelt: 62%
- Landon: 38%
Leftist media minions are convinced the only questions now are how big Hillary Clinton’s win will be and whether the Democrats can take Congress, too.
As in the case of Brexit, average liberal biased poll numbers shows the referendum would fail big. But the voters did not follow the progressive order, Britons once they were inside the privacy of a polling booth, eventually voting in favour of leaving by a nearly four-point margin. Brexit was passed despite the media saying it could never happen.
The IBD/TIPP poll results continue to show a much closer race than most other nationwide polls. Only the Rasmussen poll shows Trump ahead in a four-way contest (by two points). The Real Clear Politics average has Clinton up by 5.9 points. And Clinton leads by an average 5.8 points in the latest two-way matchup polls.
On the campaign trail, Trump was in Gettysburg, Pa., on Saturday, where he announced his “Contract with the American Voter” — a list of 28 actions he promises to take in his first 100 days as president, including tax cuts, immigration reform, freezing federal hiring, regulatory reforms, bans on lobbying for foreign governments by public officials, and many other proposals Trump has made during his campaign.
Trump said his focus would be to “restore prosperity to our country, secure our communities, and honesty to our government.”
What do Vegas Casinos have to say in the odds-making? Casinos have millions on the line, they are non partisan and use an actuarial mathematic and scientifically based decisions for odds making. The large Vegas casinos, the mathematical genesis are paid to be correct, and if they are wrong, they do not get paid, or will be fired, or worse, seriously.
“Following the third debate, the mathematicians have Trump up over Clinton 12 To 14 points, except in Massachusetts, and California, where Clinton has an 8 point lead.
Top UK bookmaker Ladbrokes and other bookies who also calculate odds based on the amount of money people wager on sporting events or a political race analyzed Trump’s chances.
Anyone making a bet obviously has skin in in the game. Take millions of people all waging real cash on a prediction and you have a pretty strong ‘wisdom of the crowd,’ ” said Alex Donohue, a rep for top British bookmaker Ladbrokes.
“I’ll start with this point: Anyone who said Trump had slim or no chance these past months, I’m very confident in saying we are more accurate than than the media.”
Oddsmakers are much smarter than TV chatter pundits, as it’s in their self-interest to be, unlike the TV and print pundits. Oddsmakers have to be right or they’re out of business,” he said.
