5 Takeaways From Israel’s Massive Intelligence Operation on Iran

The Israeli government on Monday unloaded a massive intelligence data dump that demonstrated Iran’s efforts to hide its nuclear weapons program.

The revelations come weeks before an anticipated decision by the U.S. to “fix or nix” the Iran nuclear deal.

Reactions to the Israeli intelligence revelations ranged from “ding-dong the deal is dead” to “nothing to see here, move along people.” Neither of these extreme assessments accurately characterize the likely impact this intelligence data will have on the final U.S. decision.

Here are the five takeaways from the intelligence dump that the Trump administration will no doubt take to heart.

1. Trust but verify.

The information is true. It is highly unlikely that Monday’s briefing from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the first the administration has heard about the Israeli intelligence. U.S. officials have already confirmed the veracity of the documents. That doesn’t happen in a vacuum.

Sure, the White House knows the Israeli government dumped the information at a strategic time so as to add pressure to the White House to dump the deal. That doesn’t make the intelligence any less true.

2. Measure means and intent.

The documents don’t necessarily prove that Iran has violated obligations under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (i.e. the Iran nuclear deal) negotiated by the Obama administration. But the documents do conclusively prove the regime lied when it said it had no interest in building a nuclear weapons program, and it shows they clearly have the technical knowledge to pursue a program in the future.

3. The nuclear deal is not enough.

These revelations will only strengthen the administration’s belief that the Iran nuclear deal is inadequate to derail Iran’s nuclear threat.

Reports that suggest the U.S. is trying to amend the deal are accurate. What the administration wants is agreement from Germany, France, and the United Kingdom to add more demands and restrictions to the deal. If those European partners don’t agree, then the U.S. will nix the deal and press on.

4. Put Jack back in the box.

Israel’s intelligence and offensive actions in Syria targeting Iranian assets are a reminder of how dangerous Iran has become since he Iran deal was signed.

Iran has sought to build a strategic land bridge to the Israeli border and equip Hezbollah with precision-guided long range missiles, which could overwhelm Israeli missile defenses. There is no question the potential for a larger war is real, unless the Iranian regime is put back in its box and deterred from its destabilizing activities.

5. The U.S. must lead.

There is a simple cause and effect at play in the Middle East. When he U.S. backs off, Iran runs wild. When the U.S. steps up, everyone else gets a backbone to join, and Iran backs down.

The Iranian regime is fragmented. Iran’s economy is in freefall. Its people are protesting in the streets. Other nations in the region want to the U.S. to step up.

In private, even Germany, France, and the U.K. will admit that President Barack Obama negotiated a weak deal. If the U.S. leads, there is a chance to put things right. If not, things will only get worse.

However the White House acts on the deal, don’t bet there is a serious voice in this administration that doesn’t take these five truths to heart.

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One Comment

  1. To all those people living in the Land of OZ or Lilliput

    We are in a World wide Islamic Cultural War or 1400-year-old Jihad.

    We each see a different parts of it in the world and if you put all the violent parts together it adds up to only one cause: a 1400 year old Islamic Cultural War. It is the same as that joke of four blind men touching the elephant.

    The names of the Arabs and Muslim Terrorists change but the behavior has been always the same for the last 1400 years.

    It is not about land, rights or settlements, water or being politically left or right. If it were it would have been solved long ago. It has not.

    It is Cultural War that means Islamic Culture must destroy Western Culture or Western Culture must destroy Islamic Culture.
    It is an Islamic Genocidal Cultural War, just like the American/Indian Wars that ended in Genocide. This time we are the Indians.

    Muslims have been fighting each other and others for 1400 years or more. There is no reason that it will stop now. If we want peace we must change Islamic Culture.

    The book “Culture and Conflict”, explains it clearly. It shows that current cultural conditions in the Arab Middle East will not support internal development, advancement or peace until there is a major cultural change. “It is critical that we understand our enemy. That is step one in every conflict,” RR. Philip Carl Salzman, INSB # 978-1-59102-587-0.

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