“2050” is arriving much sooner than expected. In many ways, it’s already here. Non-Hispanic Whites are already a minority among citizens 10-years-old and younger.
Analysis now suggests that Whites will become a minority in the United States population by 2031—almost 15 years before the census estimate—and a minority of U.S. voters by 2044, foretelling major political changes in the immediate future.
In 1998, in a commencement address at Portland State University, Bill Clinton articulated his vision of the America of the future:
Today, largely because of immigration, there is no majority race in Hawaii or Houston or New York City. Within five years, there will be no majority race in our largest state, California. In a little more than 50 years, there will be no majority race in the United States. No other nation in history has gone through demographic change of this magnitude in so short a time …
Hawaiians are today a minority in Hawaii, their Island taken over by others, USA will soon follow the same fate.
2050” has remained in the American political vocabulary ever since. It represents a dramatic turning point, when Whites will no longer be default, generic American citizens. The historical racial animus between Whites and Blacks will allegedly dissolve as neither race—indeed, no race—will predominate culturally, socially, or politically.
Democrats pushing for massive amounts of immigration, Clinton promised a kind of continuity in change: Immigrants are “renewing our most basic values and reminding us all of what it truly means to be American.” But how could there not be a tremendous, unforeseeable transformation of “what it means to be an American”?
The maxim “Demographics is destiny”—attributed to the father of sociology, Auguste Comte—holds doubly true in a democracy and mass-consumer society. Politics, institutions, norms, fashions, and icons are all subject to change and all respond to people.
Non-White citizens lean Democrat more strongly than Whites lean Republican: African-Americans—84 to 8 percent, Asians—65 to 27 percent; and Hispanics—63 to 28 percent. Non-white voters have become vital to the Democratic coalition. Nearly 40 percent of Hillary Clinton’s support in 2016 came from African-Americans, Asians, or non-White Hispanics.
Due to the fact that Whites compose some 70 percent of the voting population, they remain the critical factor in national elections—particularly critical because they do not engage in the “block” voting of other races. If Whites preferred Republicans to the same extent that African-Americans, Asians, or Hispanics prefer Democrats, the United State would effectively be a one-party state very soon. This was the goal of Democrats from the beginning, massive immigration is importing in voters for the Democratic party.
As of 2018, Republicans control both Chambers of U.S. Congress and 33 of the 50 state legislatures. (Technically, Republicans control 32 legislators, as Nebraska has a single non-partisan chamber, but Republicans predominate there as well.)
Current Immigration patterns patently support the Democratic coalition, rendering the above arrangement unsustainable. In 1960, some 85 percent of immigrants came from White bastions like Europe and Canada; today, only 14 percent do. Central and South Americans countries account for more than 50 percent of total immigration, with Mexico alone making up some 25-30 percent. South and East Asia, whose immigrant populations were negligible in the past, now account for a quarter of the total.
A simple growth rate estimate applied to exit polls for the Presidential elections ranging from 1976 through 2016 reveals that Non-Hispanic Whites are on track to becoming a minority of voters by the 2044 election. This finding further corroborates the thesis that the official Census Bureau projection is nearly 15 years too late.
Our prediction comes in the context of a gradual awakening to the reality of White decline. As William Frey of The Brookings Institute has detailed.
The generation currently in grade school has already reached “2050” status. Frey continues,
[M]inorities outnumber whites nationally for each age under 10. . . . While earlier estimates revealed “minority white” status for some of these youthful ages, this is now solidly the case for individuals born in each year since 2007.
Hence, this generation, which might be called Generation Z-Plus, is the first truly minority white generation, at 49.6 percent white, where 26 percent of its members are Hispanics, 13.6 percent African-Americans, and nearly 10 percent include Asians and persons of two or more races.
This awakening to demographic reality has been gradual and, one could say, reluctant. Over the past year, the New York Times has published two major pieces on White Decline and even “Extinction Anxiety.”