Iran’s miscalculation

By Giuliano Maciocci

It is hard to understand Iran Supreme Leader Khamenei’s blunder in attacking the US Embassy in Baghdad. He either believed Trump was weakened by his impeachment, as western liberal Media breathlessly and continuously reported, or he might have been misled by John Kerry’s incompetent advice (apparently Kerry met again with Khamenei’s emissaries in Paris just few weeks ago). Whatever the reasons, his goal of triggering a limited war with America to rally his people around the regime has failed miserably.

Iran desperately wanted a war — drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s heart of oil production, false-flag hits on oil tankers, unrest in Yemen – all aimed at this goal. Trump restraint in responding to these provocations must have been disappointing. But as Tehran resorted to attack the US Embassy in Baghdad, it must have realized it had overplayed its hand when the reaction was surgical, devastating, and unexpected:  the elimination of the mass murderer Qasem Soleimani, commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force, Khamenei’s right-hand man and chief executioner.

Channeling Lenin, Khamenei must be asking himself: What is to be done? Contrary to doomsayers’ forecasts, his options are limited.

His first reaction in fact was to declare: “Iran will stop abiding to the terms of the 2015 Nuclear Deal” to which of course it never abided (inadvertently revealing that his fatwa against nuclear weapons was false). His second was to place an $80 million bounty on Trump. As face-saving measures go, it verges on pathetic.

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Any way you look at it, we are here because Obama and Europe forgot or preferred to ignore that Iran is an apocalyptic messianic regime bent on exporting terrorism and Shi’itism to intimidate its enemies, and should never be allowed to develop or possess nuclear weapons.

If the regime wants to avoid its demise, it must stop its nuclear program development, which never slowed despite gullible media informing us daily that they will break this or that limit unless Europe paid up, or bamboozled journalists telling the public about Iranian moderate or reformist Presidents. Europe must also realize that its shortsighted appeasing of the mullahs for the sake of doing business at all costs might be a dangerous game to play, especially considering a possible American reaction.

Iran can and must be stopped. First, because their program is not yet developed to the point of representing a current risk, and second because, once developed, the regime and its proxies would have no qualms in using nuclear weapons against their perceived enemies, including fellow Muslims and even their own citizens. An additional bonus is that Iran’s people are young, educated (Iran is no “Hermit Kingdom”), oppressed but aware of what they are missing out and despise the mullahs. They’ll free themselves with a little encouragement (had Obama supported the Green Revolution in 2009, the Middle East today would be very different).

Soleimani was not respected by the Iranians, especially for his targeted assassinations and for having squandered Iran’s limited resources on proxies to conduct the regime expansionist revolutionary wars in distant countries.

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However, many liberals chose to have a different opinion; let’s have a look:

  • Trump wanted to distract attention from the impeachment. Why should he? The farce has driven his approval sky-high.
  • The timing is suspicious. Such an operation requires months of planning, wagonloads of intelligence, and when a small window of opportunity presents itself there is no time to lose.
  • The strike is illegal. Obviously false or Obama would be in jail.
  • They’ll block the Strait of Hormuz!. So what? Only 2% of world oil transits there. Besides, the US is energy independent and it might even benefit from it.
  • Soleimani’s funeral proves he was revered. Only idiots trust totalitarian regimes’ mass demonstrations; participation is mandatory “or else.” Furthermore, the recent horrible killing of 1500 peaceful demonstrators did nothing to increase their love for Soleimani or the regime.

Forget the irrelevant objections above: had Churchill managed to have Heinrich Himmler killed in 1939, they would have said the same things about him: traitors exist in every age. Furthermore, they miss the big picture: most of the Middle East (including Iranians and Iraqis) is celebrating the demise of one of the main architects of its misery. Critics only motivated by their obsessive orange man bad mantra can take a breather; Trump is doing the right thing and Iran has only to lose if antagonizes America. Alas, for all their protestations, what they really resent is a regained US world leadership.

Every country should pay close attention to such a destabilizing presence in the Middle East before it’s too late and the mullahs’ reckless behavior drags the world towards another devastating war which only Iran wants.

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Giuliano Maciocci Sr. has worked as Manager and Head of Corporate Support Services for private and international organizations, including the UN, in many countries.

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