On 5 May 2016, Dave Armstrong wrote his prediction paper: 15 Reasons Why Trump Wins in November. On 9 November 2016 he followed up with My Successful May Predictions About the 2016 Election, in which he described how he was correct in 13 out of my 15 predictions (or 87%). he also detailed on Facebook right after the election how he got 46 of 50 states right in the electoral college, and was just seven electoral votes off of the final result. This was a 93% success rate.
VIA David Armstrong:
This was more accurate prognostication than virtually all of the paid political pundits and pollsters and consultants. So perhaps my prophesying this year might garner a little more attention than one would think is warranted for an apologist and sociology major (albeit also a political junkie for forty years). The proof’s in the pudding, and as the famous 1930s baseball pitcher Dizzy Dean opined: “it ain’t braggin‘ if you can do it!” Here goes nothing (roughly in order of decreasing importance)!:
1) In 2016, probably my biggest reason why I thought President Trump would prevail was that “Almost always after eight years of one party, it flips to the other party.” Similarly, this year, the factor perhaps more important and predictive than any other is another highly likely trend: the incumbent almost always wins. Professor of economics Randall G. Holcombe noted:
Let’s consider presidential reelection rates back to the beginning of the twentieth century. I’ll argue that setting aside special circumstances, incumbent presidents have failed to be reelected only twice over that time period. . . . The first George Bush lost his reelection bid, but I’m calling that a special circumstance because third-party candidate Ross Perot got 19% of the popular vote, . . . Ford was not elected (he became president when Nixon resigned) and lost popularity because he pardoned Nixon. So I’m counting Ford as a special case too. . . . So there’s my count. Only two incumbents — Hoover and Carter — failed to win reelection. . . . Two cases in a century and two decades. Incumbents almost always win.
2) President Trump created the best economy in American history, accomplishing things like the lowest African-American and Hispanic percentage of unemployment ever (5.5% and 3.9% as of October 2019). Even The New York Times admitted in April 2019 that “American manufacturers have added jobs for 19 straight months”. Even after the downturn, the Real Clear Politics compilation of polls on how Trump is handing the economy has him polling higher for approval than disapproval, on the economy. Of course, the counter is that the economy crashed due to the coronavirus: but that’s just it. It was a “freak of nature” and had nothing directly to do with Donald Trump. I believe that Americans will understand that and that this will still help him get re-elected.
3) Joe Biden’s alarming cognitive breakdown and possible senility. This seems to almost be the “elephant in the room” / “the emperor is naked” factor of this election. It hardly favors the Democrats. This is not simply some sort of low-class attack or ad hominem blitz. It’s a real issue; and personally — all politics aside — , I think it’s a disgrace and an outrage that the Democrats nominated a man so obviously deficient, through no fault of his own. Rasmussen Reports, the reputable pollster, published an article on 6-29-20, entitled, “38% of Voters Think Biden Has Dementia”:
Most voters, including just over half of Democrats, feel it is important for the likely Democratic presidential nominee to publicly address the issue. . . . Twenty percent (20%) of voters in his own party think Biden has dementia. But that compares to 66% of Republicans and 30% of voters not affiliated with either major party.