The difficulty of training and massing the necessary troops, as well as a serious shortage of ammunition and military equipment, will probably keep the Kiev regime from attaining the goals for their much-hyped ‘spring offensive’.
This harsh assessment, apparently based on human and signals intelligence, was released as part of the ongoing massive leak of US classified documents that has sparked investigations of the Pentagon and DOJ.
“Labeled ‘top secret,’ the bleak assessment from early February warns of significant ‘force generation and sustainment shortfalls,’ and the likelihood that such an operation will result in only ‘modest territorial gains.’ It’s a marked departure from the Biden administration’s public statements about the vitality of Ukraine’s military and is likely to embolden critics who feel the United States and NATO should do more to push for a negotiated settlement to the conflict.
[…] It has revealed, for instance, where American officials have detected critical weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defenses and access to ammunition while exposing considerable deficiencies within the Russian military, too. Many of the assessments date to February and March.
The document forecasting only modest success in Ukraine’s forthcoming counteroffensive indicates that Kyiv’s strategy revolves around reclaiming contested areas in the east while pushing south in a bid to sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea.”
By attacking, Ukrainian forces will have to expose themselves to a much greater degree, while the Russians will have deeply entrenched defenses to fight back from with their overwhelming artillery firepower.
The leaked document states that “enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive.”
According to WaPo, A senior Ukrainian official shared:
“[The document] is partially true, but the most critical part is a delay of the already promised systems, which slows training of newly formed brigades and the counteroffensive as a whole.”
On the Russian side, reactions to the leaking of the counteroffensive plans were mixed. PMC Wagner chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, estimated the number of Ukrainian troops for the counteroffensive at 200 thousand, and warned that this represents a real threat.
“They have collected about 200, according to some sources up to 400 thousand personnel, this cannot be underestimated.”
Head of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov took to Telegram to suggest that the over-hyped Ukrainian spring counteroffensive would benefit Russia, ‘as Moscow’s troops would have an opportunity to fight in more favorable conditions’ to use fewer resources.
“Personally, I’m all for it. A successful counteroffensive needs considerable resources; losses among the attackers are inevitable. At the same time, we have taken up favorable and fortified positions.”
As the US and the west sink untold billions into an unwinnable war, they fear that a lackluster performance in the counteroffensive will lead to the weakening for the support for the Ukrainian defense, and to a push for negotiations with Moscow that will mean heavy territorial concessions by Kyiv.
Source material can be found at this site.